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Putting on the Swami Hat: Movement Analysis in Iowa--Open Thread Version
Reposting Karen's thread here for Chuck and anyone else who can't post in the other page. Sorry about the difficulty folks.
A friend wrote today suggesting that Hillary was outspending the rest of the Democrats in Iowa and might pull it out there. As you all know, as a DCPer and as a movement analyst, I have no horse in this race, nor would I endorse anyone. But I thought it might be fun for you to see what I told him, and let's see if I have any credibility left after January 3rd!
Dear __,
Not so fast. It's not ALL about money. I don't think we know how the Iowans are going to caucus and here's why:
As a movement analyst who has called a number of these races correctly, often against what the pollsters understand, there are a certain factors on the nonverbal front that make or break a candidacy:
1. Listening: Here HRC may have the advantage. No one models listening behavior up close the way she does. She had good practice in her Senate race in New York state, where she listened impressively. I have observed Edwards' ability to actually lean over and listen well, but too often, his responses are a little too pat, or canned. Iowans tend to hate that. Obama is a tad remote, and that may work against him in the end. But Hillary has practiced her "listening tour" demeanor and people may be swayed towards her for that reason. However, note that when I made phone calls into Iowa four years ago, she was hated. Universally despised. So her listening demeanor needs to overcome some fairly high negatives.
2. Accomodating/Shaping/Connecting authentically: Shaping always trumps content, see Huckabee for evidence. Shaping is the ability of the candidate to move both posturally and gesturally in three-dimensional patterns that include the back pat, handshake, hug, or inclusive spreading and enclosing patterns. The key here is authenticity. Clinton and Reagan had it, Kerry had it on the stump but rarely on TV, Bush has it on occasion but anyone who thinks it's authentic is fooling themselves. It is a limited form of shaping--the buddy-back-slap pretty much sums up his relational abilities. Huckabee has it, tons and tons of it. Edwards does too, but it does not read as authentic all the time--he often distances at the same time he accomodates. Hillary does not do this well at all, although she can--at least I have personally experienced it in a small group setting. Obama has it in droves, but does not always ACCESS it when necessary. He is not yet master of the authentic exchange, but he can get there. The question is: Will he? Has he? Iowa will tell us a lot.
3. Grounding: Grounding--the ability to "hold the ground" through an energetic connection to the ground beneath, reveals something about commitment and follow through as well as maturity. Chris Dodd is by far the most grounded of these candidates, but it's not enough to overcome the rest of his limitations. Hillary can be extremely grounded but she also tends to access what we call BOUND flow at those moments--she looks a little rigid. When she is grounded, she is her least feminine self, and when she is most feminine, she often loses her grounding. She has clearly been practicing to appear both strong and feminine. Obama needs to be more grounded. If he wins Iowa and NH, he is going to need more help than just Oprah (who may be the MOST grounded human being on the planet). Edwards just does not have much grounding--his character is one of passion and energy and charm, but I am not sure we understand how well he will get the job done.
4. Complexity/Innovation: Movers who are patterned and predictable, but complex and variable (within a range) inspire. Huckabee has this ability, which is why he is beating the crap out of Romney. Hillary has little variability and she needs to develop more--the droning just does not work. Edwards is almost always the same: predictable without offering anything new or innovative. (I say this despite his having some of the better policy ideas--but if you can't sell it at the dance, no one will buy it). Obama has much more of this than any of the others, which is part of his appeal.
Iowans, god bless 'em, are hard to fool. Those who participate in the caucuses are still thinking about it. But, there is also the concept of the "last click" and that plays a role. For those who work fulltime and are swamped with information, there is a tendency to go with the most recent impression. This is a function for western society as a whole. It does not hold true for the older generations, who are slower to come to conclusions. But for anyone under 60, the "last click" impression is the most potent impression and people will vote for the one whose most recent "click" resonates positively.
And there you have it. Too close to call yet, and what the next week will bring by way of candidate education remains to be seen! As my brilliant husband often says: the candidate needs to learn what works.
I guess what I am saying here is that candidates win by love OR money. And we all know what the world needs now is....
cue Dionne Warwick...
Yours in movement,
Karen
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nmp...love the corn flakes with nuts. I'm impressed that Karen could say who each of them were. I could only name a few.
And btw...keep spreading the word about wexlerwantshearings.com
I'm not sure if this is real or photoshopped.
Rudy looks like he's going to break out in song, like the gay nazi in The Producers. (At least I think it was a gay nazi in the Producers.)
Lawyers Stepping Up
Submitted by davidswanson on Sat, 2007-12-22 17:10. Activism
By Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation
We are lawyers in the United States of America. As such, we have all taken an oath obligating us to defend the Constitution and the rule of law…. We believe the Bush administration has committed numerous offenses against the Constitution and may have violated federal laws…. Moreover, the administration has blatantly defied congressional subpoenas, obstructing constitutional oversight …. Thus, we call on House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers and Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy to launch hearings into the possibility that crimes have been committed by this administration in violation of the Constitution…. We call for the investigations to go where they must, including into the offices of the President and the Vice President. -- American Lawyers Defending the Constitution
Over one thousand lawyers – including former Governor Mario Cuomo and former Reagan administration official Bruce Fein – have signed onto the above statement demanding wide-ranging investigative hearings into unconstitutional and potentially criminal activity by the Bush administration.
In a conference call with reporters yesterday, Michael Ratner, president of the Center for Constitutional Rights and winner of the 2007 Puffin/Nation Prize for Creative Citizenship, said: "The majority of lawyers in this country understand that the Bush administration has really gone off the page of constitutional rights and off the page of fundamental rights, and is willing to push the Congress to restore those rights." Ratner said he was "dismayed" that a Democratic majority has failed "to push on key illegalities… the torture program, and now the destruction of the tapes involving the torture program; the warrantless wiretapping, the denial of habeas corpus, the secret sites/rendition program, special trials, and of course what we now know is the firing of US Attorneys scandal…. The minimal that absolutely is needed to get us back on the page of law is to have serious investigative hearings that go up the chain of command and figure out who is responsible for what."
Ratner noted that even with regard to the US attorney's investigations, where Congressional committees held Harriet Miers, Josh Bolten, and Karl Rove in contempt, leadership has failed to enforce these actions by bringing the resolutions to a vote. "Just announcing that investigations will be held and subpoenas will be issued is terribly insufficient unless Congress is willing to enforce the subpoenas by issuing contempt citations," Ratner said. "Congress has a constitutional duty to oversee the activities of the executive branch and our entire system of government is threatened when Congress simply folds before an obstinate executive. Issuing contempt citations against Bolten, Miers, and Rove should be Congress's first order of business in 2008."
Marjorie Cohn, president of the National Lawyers Guild, discussed the administration's torture program violating three US-ratified treaties and the US torture statute; the illegal War in Iraq violating the US-ratified UN Charter as a war of aggression; and Attorney General Michael Mukasey's conflict of interest in overseeing investigations into the torture program and the destruction of the CIA interrogations tapes.
Also speaking with reporters was Jesselyn Raddack, a former Justice Department ethics lawyer who served as an advisor during the interrogation of John Walker Lindh (the "American Taliban"). Raddack said, "My e-mails documented my advice against interrogating Lindh without a lawyer, and concluded that the FBI committed an ethics violation when it did so anyway. Both the CIA videotapes and my e-mails were destroyed, in part, because officials were concerned that they documented controversial interrogation methods that could put agency officials in legal jeopardy…. " Raddack pointed to the Department of Justice's investigations of Enron and Arthur Anderson for obstruction of justice and destruction of evidence, and the need for the same aggressive oversight and legal proceedings in these scandals.
This is a vital effort by those charged with defending our constitution, as Ratner said, "This lawyers' letter and the growing number of signatures we'll have on it, and prominent people – it's a way of saying to Congress, ‘You need some backbone. You need to have a serious investigation, wherever it might go, on these issues that really have taken the United States out of the mainstream of human rights.' It's absolutely critical… We've opened up the door to illegality…. Unless we have accountability on those illegalities, we're going to be facing a very bleak future in which fundamental rights will not really be obeyed."
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/29538
sparrow
From the last thread - how did I change my username to "Ally McRepuke in San Francisco"?
1. Log out
2. Log back in
3. When "thanks for signing in, sparrow" appears, "sparrow" should be hyperlinked. Click the hyperlink.
4. You get a screen where you can change the displayed username to whatever you want.
I read a comic book at the Beatnik Museum in San Francisco, that was more tragic than comic. It was about the American longstanding militarism, and how it screws all of us over - except maybe Dick Cheney, who profits so handsomely from all his wars.
It was a very disgusting read, as it maddens me to know that war money could be funding better education instead - or my healthcare.
And this is coming from a military contractor. In fact, I am a military contractor, because - guess what - the military is the only place with any money these days.
Also, at the neighboring City Lights Bookstore, I bought a Lakoff book, titled "Whose Freedom?" It's a lot like his other book, "Don't Think of the Elephant!" in that freedom is given the conservative spin (AKA neoconservatism and neoliberalism), then the progressive spin to debunk all of that.
Just took a bath in my hotel room - will head out to Yerba Buena Center in a few hours for late night ice skating. And on tomorrow's agenda will be a Unitarian Universalist congregation, where I'll socialize with some Berkeley progressives.
In any case, I am so glad to be here in Blue California. Of course, my folks in Red California don't understand the draw Blue California has on me... (while they're perfectly fine with me going to Vegas every 3 months!)
Chuck said:
Sparrow, that was thoughtful! I'll guess I'll repost. Also, on the Producers, the gay bit was not so much the Nazis as the director (De Bris), I think:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wi2DOvJLF7I&feature=related
I actually liked Matthew Broderick better in "Glory."
Hey All:
Merry christams eve eve eve! Well, I never can post on the topical threads (my logon credentials don't take for some reason), but one the body-language thing, which is a really interesting thread, I do wonder about Governor Richardson -- on paper he comes accross quite well but on screen, well, to me anyway, and trying to be charitable, he does not come across presidential. I mean, I have colleagues at work that come across with more charisma. Personally, Biden seems the most comfortable in his own skin to me. (Aside to Karen: is that another way to say he seems cocky?) After Biden, I connect best to Clinton; she has some mojo. I thought I would like Edwards more on that basis but on the body-language basis for some reason it doesn't connect with me. Coltish for Obama is about right for me. My brother tells me his first autobiographical book is a very good read though (let's see if he sent me a copy for X-Mas). Pretty much all of my impressions on this come from debates that could be viewed on the web (I don't have cable or rabbit-ears). Those are my impressions anyway.
Chuck in Houston
You know what though? Body movement does say a lot, but in times like these, with tv and a dumbed down populace...
Do not underestimate the basic impact of LOOKS.
Do you know why I think Obama will take it if hillary can't rig it?
Because he is BLACK. Yes, yes, I know that sounds horrible, but think about it a second.
The average US Citizen can identify MORE with a black man than they can a white person. Why? Because most of us are not exactly WHITE.
Main Street America, is the streets running through the ghettos. Not the gated communities white people cluster in. Harlem is what America looks like, not congress.
Don't get me wrong, he has to have the body language to complete the IMAGE, but the image itself is enough to sway the results.
Not only is he MORE racially in line with the REAL merikuns, but I think white people ALWAYS underestimate the mass of people who identify this nations problems with old rich white men. And they are SO TIRED of it. Obama is white enough to be acceptable to whites, but to everyone else he is the exact opposite of everything they identify with the power structure.
The rational is very simple. Old rich white men screwed this nation up. But a young black man would 'get it'. I hate to say it, but to some extent even I believe that is true.
It is hard to be black in this country, and NOT 'get it'. Damn near impossible I think. As a country we are READY to elect a black man. I have never seen a nation so eager to suddenly break a silly taboo. We are willing to break it for no other reason than it HAS TO BE broken, and Obama absolutely LOOKS the part 100%
Body language analysis is very eye opening. It is a very accurate and interesting view into what is happening inside of them internally.
But most people do not care. They judge everything on simple external markers. Most people will make up their mind looking at an IMAGE, not processing words.
I honestly think if we can get a clean election, Obama or John Edwards will take it.
I wholeheartedly agree with that, Christy. Especially since Hillary has so little support among the true Democratic base, and the Republicans don't have strong hands to play right now.
And in an ideal world, Obama and Edwards would be co-opting more of Kucinich and other progressives' ideas.
Sparrow:
More from "The Producers," as I felt I had to present the other side as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBZS8CzH9Gg&feature=related
Also, Christy, just for the sake of being provocative, Obama is just as white as he is black (for what that is worth) and as the dad (the African side, Kenya I want to say) seems to have left early I suppose the mom (the Anglo/Kansas side) probably had a lot of influence, which means the guy is probably.... Well, I'll have to read the book. But I bet he has a lot more in common with an older upper-middle class white guy like me than he does with a ward chief in South Chicago. Actually, we are both 46-47 years old and probably went to some of the same schools.
Chuck in Houston
Ally:
Well, I guess people like me don't count as a true Democrat Base -- despite, in my case, being a sixth generation Democrat and contributing significantly to the party in monetary terms over the years. I like Hillary Clinton. She also happens to be from Park Ridge, Illinois, which is where my mom and dad got engaged. My dad was actually from South Chicago (see my above).
Chuck in Houston
PS: I like Obama and Edwards and Biden too. I sort of like Dodd but I thought his driver's license bit was pandering. I like Kucinich but, as I've said, in this universe.... As for the GOP, I'd vote for a Yellow Dog first.
"Obama is just as white as he is black "
Which is exactly why white people have no real choice but to accept him. With a white mother it is finally crystal clear to whites he can not be dismissed as he is their OWN BROTHER.
It is almost as if our first 'black' president would HAVE TO have white blood. It is a perfect racial conundrum that the white population of this country can't avoid any longer.
But, I think you are right about Obama being more in line with you than Jesse Jackson. True. But that is a good thing.
My Lord, not even black people trust Jesse Jackson. Men with racial based political agendas are never trusted. Even by their own.
With Obama and his white blood, it is hard to believe he even has a 'racial agenda'.
He takes away every suppossed excuse for the sterotypical fear of the 'great black menace'.
I think he is wonderful.
Chuck
Apologies - I didn't say Hillary has NO support among the true base. I said Hillary has LITTLE support.
You definitely are the base, and you support Hillary, but MOST of the base doesn't rank Hillary first.
Chuck--you're welcome about the o/t here. Thanks for all the youtube links. I'll check them in the morning. I was about to go to bed. (Another cold has me down.)
Regarding ally's comment, I'm not sure she meant true democratic base as you read it. That is the problem with reading something online where there is no face to tell you what a person means or if things are being understood the same way.
I read it as the netroots base--ie Kos, DU, FDL, and some here.
Yes, you're part of the netroots too, but unless you've surfed through Kos, FDL, and DU and read how much they express their dislike of her you'll see the difference between that meaning of netroots and us little guys here at the DCP.
I myself know people who are strong supporters of Hillary (offline--I mean) and I know people who pray that she won't be the nominee. These are both Republicans, Dems, and independents.
Actually, CHuck, at this point, I think you are more "Dem" than I am. I think that I've decided to just adopt an 'independent' label again but augment it with the word "Idealist".
And So maybe that describes the differences in the Dem side now? The idealist dems and the pragmatic dems. (Is that insulting? I hope not.) I mean absolutely no disrespect, but I think you are much more pragmatic than I am.
And I think the 'idealist dems' are the ones that Ally was referring to--because they are not sure if Hillary will be a moderate Republican, a moderate Dem, or a progresive dem.
In my idealist realm...I just want an FDR style candidate.
Christy:
I agree -- like I said, I like Obama (I need to read those books first though). I think I'd rather have a beer with Jesse Jackson though....
Alley:
OK, I'll settle for being a minority within the Democrat base. I guess I have to.
Chuck in Houston
Christy, actually, I am related by blood to Jacksons of both "colors."
Um chuck...
Allan Jackson, Jesse Jackson, Michael Jackson?
You may want to qualify your Jackson's there. Michael?
Christy:
Actually, I take that back. My "white" Jackson connection is my great grandfather's first wife, not his second, which is my great grandmother. So my "white" Jackson relation is a step relation. My "black" Jackson relation is my neice.
Chuck in Houston
Sparrow:
My understanding was that FDR was a big old mess of contradictions himself. As for pragmatic, that's me! Some would say "sell-out" but I prefer "pragmatic."
Also, as Ally is from California and I am from Oregon (more or less), we have to argue or the world will start leaning off it's current axis of rotation and that will introduce a new variable into climate change and, as I don't want to be responsible for any unintended consequences of that, Ally and I will just have to continue to argue certain things!
Right Ally?
Chuck in Houston
Sparrow:
It's Jesse Jackson I'd like to have a beer with. Among others. I am probably totally wrong but he seems like the kind of person that I could sit around and BS with over a few beers and possibly profit some how from the occasion.
Chuck in Houston
PS: But where is Fe when I need to get us back into the theme of "No heroes?"
And, obversely, or conversely, no anti-heroes.
Cool CHuck. Glad it's worked out.
Good to know that your pragmatism is ready to chat with my idealism.
Just not in the middle of the night.
c'ya
Ok. Chuck...another time I will tell you about Jessie Jackson. (I stood one foot from him and actually had a few words.) ha ha ha But that's for daytime hours.
No anti-Elvis....
It's contrary to Physics.
Sparrow:
You may be totally right about Jesse -- I have no idea at all. I'm just judging by the body-language and the history. Actually, I'd like to have a beer with....
OK, if I cross-out my old neighborhood/family or school/work buddies, who would I actually like to have a beer with? I mean, from a strictly platonic, knock-a-few-back and let's see what's on your mind point of view, who would that person be? Interesting thread idea!
Chuck in Houston
If Hillary is nominated (which will be quite a blow to my confidence in the "primary system" - but it must be said that the other candidates have their problems as well; Richardson, Biden, Dodd etc..) and elected president, this will be seen as a low point in American democracy.
It will mark the end of the period from 1988 until 2008 where two presidential elections were stolen - 2000 and 2004 - and virtually nothing was done about it. Like the other campaigns in this period, 2008 will be among the most expensive and corrupt in American history. And it will mark the period where ONLY TWO FAMILIES in the entire country - the Bushes and the Clintons - had the "talent" to run the executive branch..
My opinion is that we really no longer have a democracy or campaigns, but what we have is a very, very expensive beauty contest - and we elect pretty but air-head presidents....
Whomever that would be would have to have a little bit of Elvis in her or him. That's a sine qua none or however you spell that.
Ralpheh:
Are you saying that Hillary may be "pretty?" When I look back at those big-glasses pictures of her on the Watergate hearings staff (oddly enough, Fred Thompson seems to have been recruited on the other side by Howard "what did the President know" Baker), I don't see that, but if you go back a bit or after a bit you may see a fairly attractive woman there. But does she have any Elvis in her? That's what I am pondering on....
Chuck in Houston
Chuck, I have a black sister in law, and I just found out today my ex is dating a black woman. Who is expecting from her soon to be ex.
He seems to be in love. I think it is wonderful. He never remarried after me. His mom don't know yet. She is gonna freak out BIG TIME.
But if I am right, this child will be raised as a step brother to our kids.
The taboo is breaking away completely. The deep south has a chance to be reborn. A black president would atleast give us hope of a new day here. We need hope so badly.
The tension can be settled by a man who is both black, and white.
God I hope he makes it into atleast the top two.
We need a radically different image. He is the epitome of everything we NEED. He is an expert on the US Constitution in a way the others are not.
I love Edwards, but even I think Obama would be the best choice. Just his image is 100 years more progressive than anything we have seen in a very long time.
Christy:
OK, but just bear in mind that some of us that support Clinton might buy into everything you just said but vote a bit differently. As I have said more than once I am a yellow dog Democrat (6 generations by some accounts) so I will by all means support the nominee of the Democrat Party (I know "Democrat" is a Tom Delay term but I adopt it with pride as my ancestors once did "Yankee Doodle"). I like all my candidates and will support whomever comes out on top. And I hope the South will rise again, in a new birth of freedom. Despite the mosquitoes and the humidity.
Chuck in Houston
We can be heroes, just for one day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZlTrFcoHn0&feature=related
Hey Fe!
Nina Hagen not only supports Dennis Kucinich but she's going to rock the house for him in LA on New Year's Eve. I've seen Nina Hagen twice and Dennis Kucinich twice but not together! This would almost be worth going to LA for.
NMP:
Isn't Nina Hage the "99 Red Baloons" chick?
Chuck, ex-Luis La Bambas
Chuck,
I like Hillary. It is not what she stands 'for' that bothers me.
It is what she refuses to stand against that makes me find her completely unacceptable.
And she can take her new BFF ghwb with her when she leaves.
I hate to do this but I guess it's just a compulsion. I mean, Elvis is everywhere....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gopc3fgnXDw
Chuck in Houston
Christy:
What does "BFF ghwb" mean?
Chuck in Houston
Chuck,
That was a one-off by the German band Nena, but Nina Hagen was also East German. She was a former opera singer. She still has a MySpace website and I am one of her "friends" there.
Here's Nina on Letterman. She also has seen a UFO so maybe that's part of the connection with Dennis.
NMP:
I see your Nina Hagen and I raise you on David Bowie "Let's Dance:"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyVjdQXNs9s
Chuck in Houston
Put on your red shoes and dance the blues
Under the moonlight the serious moonlight
Don't it make my short hair long?
OK, NMP, you win. Nina is too tough for me.
It amuses me how people confuse the blogosphere for anyone's "base."
There are still plenty of voters on both sides of the aisle and in between who wouldn't know a blog if it came up and bit 'em on the butt. I meet them every day up north, the blue collar union people. I met a demographer at YearlyKos who told me those who are active political bloggers tend to be highly educated and white collar.
All Karl Rove ever had to do is take the 30% who kowtow to the Authoritarian personality (those are called "followers" or "sheep") and find 21% more at the last minute (using expensive commercials & propaganda) and that equaled the 51% it took to win. That is all he ever needed and he knew it.
Political activists are important during the primaries and they do mobilize the base, but they are not to be confused with "the base" itself (a term which is thrown around alot lately). The "netroots" or "progressive blogosphere" are powerful enough to merit the candidates making an appearance at YearlyKos and popping onto the bigger blogs from time to time.
That said, they cannot predict the outcome of the races nor can their straw polls, any more than the regular polls can predict preferences of young people with cell phones since they only poll land lines.
Right now both parties lack a clear frontrunner and that is the way it was in the old days before the media conglomerates had their hand in it so much. It wasn't uncommon for each primary to have a different winner in the early days. In that respect, this in an interesting election year because things are volatile.
The national front runners have lost their free ride and we are getting really close to Iowa (with a real caucus), New Hampshire (with a primary) and South Carolina (not sure what it has). Iowa will probably only have about 100,000 people show up to caucus and alot of them are still undecided! Their 2nd choice is as important as their first because of the way the system works.
It is really as wrong for people to cite YouTube or Straw Polls just as it is for internet and newspaper polls which do not involved statistical sampling procedures, but even the real polls like Rasmussen and so on are not yet tapping the cell phone thing, but young people are still not voting in large enough numbers, nor are minorities. Some of the popularity of Obama with the young and minorities will not matter enough unless they actually get out and vote. & Obama is popular with middle class and urban too.
Clinton is popular with older women, with union rank and file, with people who liked Bill, with people like my mom who don't have internet but are as informed as they can be through reading and life experience. Edwards has a good populist stance but there is a long time to go if he doesn't kick butt in Iowa and he has to be careful for "big house" allegations (like John Kerry) and that story in the National Inquirer this week. I don't know if people pay attention to stuff like that. Some sure do.
But, NMP, since nothing else of us remains from that time, I'll go ahead and post this again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMqRErUVt4A
Chuck at Luis La Bamba
Christy
You may be right. Race needs not to matter.
By the way, I'm 5th generation Democrat and will vote for the nominee.
I am waiting longer than usual to see how some primaries shake out and I find pros and cons with all the candidates this year. There is no one I wouldn't vote for but there is actually no one I'd wear out foot leather for or open my pocketbook widely for yet. I am pretending to be from Iowa, I guess. I used to live on the Iowa/South Dakota border. That's close enough. I think if I were from Iowa, this close to the primaries I'd turn off my tv, radio and phone. & many do. By the way, making phone calls to Iowa in 2004 was one of the most interesting things I've ever done!
NMP:
Here's my six proud Democrat generations: (1) Caleb, (2) Andrew Jackson (no kidding), (3) Narcissuss Washington (again no kidding, and I have no idea if I spelled that right), (4) Dwight Lucian, (5) Charlotte Nadine (my mom) and (6) me.
Chuck Back in Houston Again
Where you'de better do right.
Where you'd better not gamble,
And you'd better not fight.....
Chuck,
Were you in the crowd there?
By the way, we're going to Portland for our anniversary.
The McMennamin Brothers of McMinnville buy up old properties like the county poor farm and an old school in Northeast Portland. We'll be staying at the latter one. There are blackboards in the rooms, only 35 rooms. They have their own movie theater, pool, bars, make their own brew, make their own grub and it's good! They hire these funky artists to paint all over the place and it's just another world, not corporate, no tvs or WIFI or any of that. You can completely lose track of time and possibly space.
Last time I was there I got a bumper sticker that said "Keep Portland Wierd." I like Seattle a whole lot but I absolutely love Portland. I am working on a story about Beth Ditto of The Gossip being interviewed by The Guardian about Portland. She lives in Portland now by way of Olympia by way of Arkansas.
Here she is rocking the house somewhere in France. In Portland at small club gigs, she has gotten practically naked, and she's a big girl! She was also on the cover of "On Our Backs," an obscure but tres interesante magazine.
Wow I'm going to add this vid to my article. By the way, sad news - the Crocodile Cafe closed in Seattle because of those Belltown condo people and their aversion to noise above 20 decibels after 10 PM, even though they moved into that neighborhood because of the groovy grunge history - then they make sure it's destroyed. Damn gentrification is destroying the character of this and most cities. I am trying to photograph as much of it as I can before it's gone.
Oops -- should have mentioned that those were all first and middle names -- no family names involved.
Chuck in Houston
I was never in the crowd, more is the pity. We were in another band. Perhaps backstage. Maybe the odd after hours. I did play the bass on "Thinking Zebra" and Lenny played guitar on that and Pete the drums, so it was sort of the old Malchicks in a way.
Hey NMP -- Don't miss this -- this is Lenny -- just found it:
http://cdbaby.com/cd/jlrancher
Chuck
Chuck
I remember the Malchicks. I think there is still a band by that name from the UK, with a MySpace page, because I think the name comes from "A Clockwork Orange." The British Malchicks are actually coming here 3/8/08 with The Amazing World of Arthur Brown.
Chuck
Well here's the Malchicks covering the Buzzcocks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3WPzCWEVgk
Chuck
I can probably get that obscure in only 3 genres: alternative rock, electronica and R&B.
By the way, if Clinton is targeting women in Iowa at this stage, she may be hoping to capitalize on the gender gap.
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN2128411020071222
NMP:
Forget the Brits! Even if the name did come from Malcolm McDowell et al via Madison High School, Portland Oregon, USA (more is the shame as I am Cleveland High School, Portland Oregon, USA). Even so, Lenny is all right (and so was Billy). Rock on!
Chuck in Houston
NMP:
That is not our Malchicks. Ours was Billy and Lenny and Pete and Dave.
Chuck in Houston
This is kind of weird:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKTHvW2JcAA&feature=related
Chuck in Houston
Chuck
No I think the Portland people did it first. I actually like all of it. I would not want a steady diet of just rock but do like it alot at times. My son just saw "Queens of the Stone Age" and that was great. They're from the SW mainly, but with some guys from here sometimes involved, I think Dave Grohl from Foo Fighters (formerly with Nirvana). I love these guys even though they're a little on the metal side, more rocker than mod. They keep it fairly minimalist rather than going for baroque.
Here they are at Glastonbury with Grohl on drums
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW2AKkwJb_c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBfEGETyGjs
Chuck
Thanks! I can use that Crosby/Bowie somehow as it gets closer to the actual day of Christmas.
NMP and Chuck
Great discussion there! And impressive Democratic credentials - I have far more things to say on the Republican end in my family. (And I'm not even a Dem right now - I am a "Democratic leaning" independent for now and Dems can't take my vote for granted either.)
I'm sweating like a hog, after an hour of ice skating... Time to go to bed so that I'll be ready to meet some progressives (Dems and Greens) in Berkeley tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEOkxRLzBf0
A working class hero is something to be. They hate you if you are clever and they despise a fool:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njG7p6CSbCU&feature=related
Chuck in Houston
NMP:
Actually, listening to the music, etc., I wonder, from the kid I was growing up to the man I am now -- how did we lose? When did it happen? Did we lose? We did win some things. What do we tell our children?
Being ornery, I guess I just won't admit to any kind of defeat. And I guess I'll tell my child just exactly what it is I think -- at the right time of course.
Chuck in Houston
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DksGi7B5BdM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAVhKjsImeI
It ain't me, it ain't me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X90T5sY5c2o&feature=related
I guess I just lucked out.
Chuck in Houston
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mhfAO0aYMg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHXpnZi9Hzs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3KwpJUrgN4&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed5ADgorksw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pWnZFrdQFE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USGAvfxfmvU&feature=related
Hi folks, just catching up here.
Chuck: re your comment about having a beer with a candidate - let's not forget where that reasoning got us in the last elections. Many folks would have rather had a beer with Bush. I think we learned that maybe the guy you want to have a beer with isn't the guy you want running the "free" world.
Christy -
As a southerner, do you think Obama can win there? And I'm talking all about race here.
That's my main concern, is that if he would be up against, God forbid, Huckabee, how could he have a chance in the south?
You're down there, we're not, so I think you have a better feel for that issue.
Thoughts?
"As a southerner, do you think Obama can win there? "
Yes, absolutely. As I said, he is both black, and white. You have to understand something about southern whites. Even the most racist redneck down here, loves black people. I smiled the other day when Monkey was talking about his 'Ms. Mamie'.
Why he had to go north to find one is beyond me. We all have 'Ms. Mamies' here. White people do not want black people treated unfairly. We live in different neighborhoods, but we do all live in the same place.
BUT, this is and has always been about who will inheirit power. Whites are seriously given a run for if not flat out outnumbered by blacks.
It is like two brothers, one light, one dark, fighting over daddys will.
Just Obamas PRESENCE changes everything. He is a bridge to them both. It is no longer a black/white thing.
Yes, I think he can take it. But yall are going to need to again mount up the 'Freedom Riders' to make sure the blacks are fairly registered and treated. Only the presence of 'outsiders' can ensure it.
As far as Huckabee goes, he does not have a chance in hell down here.The evangicals will embrace him, and that is a problem. But for the most part southerners in genral are like anyone else with a serious concern about church and state seperation.
Do you know why there are so many churches down here and why they do so well?
Because there are a lot of desperate people here. If people are no longer desperate, they will need God less and better government more. The powers that be here does not ever intend to let that come to pass.
When you come, be ready to fight for it.
I came back to tell Rossi I am sorry if I made her angry about the guilt thing.
Maybe it is right that we should atleast feel guilt. But I can not.
I oppossed it every way I could. We all did here. And we won too, time and time again, and were cheated at every turn.
I feel horrible for the people of Iraq. But there is NOTHING that can be done at this point. Until our troops are withdrawn, there is no hope.
I am not guilty of doing that to them.
Reading up and thinking about the possibility of a Huckabee vs. Obama race: I think that might be the most HONEST discussion this country could have. I am not saying that I support either; I just think it would be quite amazing to have two such candidates: neither has been overly worked over by his staff and each is authentic in his own way.
Of course, the media would weigh in on such a race in the most obtuse and dense ways, and people's basic biases would come out as well. But I can imagine the online conversations MIGHT get interesting and perhaps even REAL.
Just dreamin' of a real democracy for Christmas...
BADDASS Santa and Yours Truly on immigration:
LOL Go Hillary:
"We can do a better job in America in supporting families," Clinton told about 120 voters in the lobby of the Young Women's Christian Association offices in Manchester, New Hampshire, as her 27-year-old daughter, Chelsea, and her 88-year-old mother, Dorothy Rodham, sat in chairs beside her.
@@@@@@@@
We can help families by splitting them up and sending their members to faraway places like Iraq to fight in stupid wars that you persist in supporting.
We can also help families impacted by Katrina by doing absolutely nothing for two years...
thanks Hillary... keep talking..
Wexler server crashes??
Impeachment Advocates Crash Petition Server, But It's Still Not News for the Corporate Media - The Smirking Chimp: "The push for hearings on Dennis Kucinich's Cheney impeachment bill (H Res. 799) continues, with the number of signers of Rep. Robert Wexler's petition (www.wexlerwantshearings.com) now topping 90,000 (after only four days).
The rush to sign on has been so heavy that on Monday it crashed the server. Wexler's people have since changed to a better server, but in the process, there were some resets of the tally, which has led to a lot of concern and even to anxious conspiracy theories among impeachment backers. Wexler's office says there has been no problem with sabatoge, and that the current number, just over 90,000 as of 10:45 am Tuesday, is accurate. The list has been checked for duplicates and other signs of trouble, and looks clean, they say."
Grab a mug of whatever and your chatter and hop over to the new thread.
Chuck outlasted me.
I think we did win some things, Chuck, & lost some.
CLick on my name & see story about the demise
of the Crocodile Cafe.
Christy said:
I came back to tell Rossi I am sorry if I made her angry about the guilt thing.
Had a couple of very busy days Hun, not angry about the guilt thing, Howard made Australia just as complicit as America in this evil illegal war and occupation, remember we are there, and we will be killing innocent citizens too, there is no way that it cannot be avoided.
We are all here because of stolen elections, fighting against the war, and I try to deal with the deaths of 1 million plus Iraqi, the 4 million plus refugees in my mind, I try not to feel guilty, but our Countries citizens were to lazy, to full of their own needs, to worry back then, I remember well all the people around me, without any concerns about this war, until now 1 million deaths later, 4 million refugees later, -5 Million Iraqi kids orphaned later, but it is to late now, My mind goes back to why they did not care before.
I don't agree with Sparrow, at all about Layla being just bitter, When you see your Country and its people, destroyed, killed, maimed, by the lies, and WMDs of an evil administation, working for its own ends,its coaltions working for their own ends, because they knew the lies Christy, they all knew.
Would it only be bitterness for you, Sparrow if it was America and her citizens, Would it be bitterness for me if it was Australia and our citizens, I don't think so, it would be so much more, so when and Iraqi Women expresses her feelings this Christmas, after watching her country and her people laid to waste, I don't think of her as a bitter person, more I think of her devastated by all the things she understands that we do not, about nations playing their hidden games, the web of lies, that has devastated her nation and her people. That to me is not just bitterness. That is pain for her nation that was 4 years ago, and is no more, before evil landed in the White House.
Rossi, you know that if we could, every single one of us here would change it.
But, I guess it was just that article, the attempt to aggressively SHAME US...shame me. I guess it just hit me wrong. I don't even have a tree.
My children are not being bombed, nor displaced nor living in a war zone, not yet. But their future is every much on the line as the children of Iraq. The military recruiters will be coming soon for my son. I still don't know how to deal with it, except to make sure all of my kids will refuse to kill Iraqis, even if they face persecution and jail.
Us here, we are all in grave danger of suddenly being arrested. It does not lessen by the day, it only becomes more certain it is coming soon.
You know when I say I do not feel personally guilty, it is only true in the litteral sense. You know I can not even look at their faces anymore. I can't sleep with the images in my head. Just the memory of it still brings me here every day.
You saw it break me down. I can't even look any more.
I do not know how to deal with the horror of it, nor can I stop them from hiding EVERYTHING in this dimentional press blackout.
I will not judge the Arab woman. If I were living in a war zone, if I were Iraqi, I have no idea what I would do or say just to survive it.
None of us has any right at all to judge the emotions of Iraqis. We gave up that right when we lied and hurt them for no reason.
How could you live in that awful place and not be bitter?
But the shaming will no longer work, it most certainly won't work here, because we have nothing to be ashamed of.
We, in fact, should be proud of ourselves, because we really have tried fighting these bastards at every turn. We are the TRUE patriots of this nation. I am very proud we are still here in opposition.
We are all probably on more lists than you can think of.
Honestly... you think Gitmo is bad...have you ever heard of ANGOLA...?
Jesus.
We have fought hard and stayed together. But this is far from over.
Turkey has effectively invaded northern Iraq. We are on the verge of a World War.
There is NOTHING that can be done in Iraq until our forces are withdrawn. But even then, it is probably too late.
Hi all,
Just logged on to wish John well and happened to see this post. It was really cool to see Karen on Hardball! I can't speak to movement analysis, but I did grow up in Iowa - the more conservative, western part. Was just back for a week over the holidays. People I think tuned out the ads a long time ago, although it's hard to get away from them.
FWIW, I don't think it's true that Iowans decide who to vote for when they show up at caucus. They do know who'll they'll vote for, that is UNLESS they don't see anyone they respect in that candidates corner when the time comes to go to a particular part of the room to show support for a candidate. Deep down, people do have their safe bet in mind, but don't want to show their cards. Experts were surprised in 2004 that Iowans chose John Kerry, but it wasn't that surprising. He just felt right, whatever that means. Maybe because he thought before he opened his mouth. He wasn't the loudest or most opinionated candidate, but someone who appeared to be the most reasonable person.
In Iowa, people generally express reservations about everything. Nothing is 100% sure. And people don't like to totally commit to an answer, they want to see what the general consensus is before making a decision. What will the Jones' think? Herd mentality at its finest.
This time around, Obama has the buzz. Same buzz Howard Dean had 4 years ago. Obama is hope. But given a choice Iowans tend to go not with hope (although Obama comes across as a reasonable person, so that's a plus), but with what they know. I think Hillary will win Iowa by a pretty good margin. But I do think the turnout will be lower than it should, because (in western Iowa anyway) people aren't jazzed about having to choose between a woman, a pretty boy, or a black man, simply said. But what do I know. I thought that Joe Biden would gain more traction than he has.
As Iowans like to say, "we'll see what happens." May the best candidate win.